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Posted on 08/02/2003 1:15:46 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

CARACAS - The 64 boxes, in four-foot stacks, are packed with the signatures of nearly four million Venezuelans who want a recall referendum on President Hugo Chávez.

But they sit in storage, waiting for the end of a political stalemate blocking any prospect that Venezuelans will vote soon on their president and resolve a crisis that has polarized and all but paralyzed their nation for 16 months.

The National Assembly cannot agree on the fifth and final member of the elections council that would supervise the vote. Political leaders can't agree on whether those signatures are even valid. And Chávez, predictably, doesn't think the vote should take place at all.

''It seems there will be a referendum soon. Yes, in the United States there will be a referendum soon,'' Chávez said in a speech this week, poking fun at the drive to recall California Gov. Gray Davis. ``Didn't you see the news?''

Venezuela has been mired in crisis as an alliance of business, oil, media and other largely middle-class interests pushes to oust Chávez, a leftist firebrand accused of abusing power through his control of government institutions like the courts.

A two-month general strike aimed at forcing Chávez out of office failed early this year, and now the recall referendum that opposition leaders had hoped would end the crisis appears to be stalling as well.

NEGOTIATIONS

The referendum was the result of seven months of negotiations between the government and the opposition, brokered by the Organization of American States. Analysts say the vote is the last hope to push the South American nation out of the political crisis, which is expected to shrink the economy by at least 10 percent this year.

But as the stalling continues, Chávez gains ground. He has tightened his grip on the National Assembly, the courts, the state oil company and the military as the opposition runs out of steam.

By law, the recall drive can begin Aug. 19, half way through Chávez's six-year term. But Chávez loyalists argue that the millions of signatures already collected in February are invalid: They were collected too soon.

Chávez this week also insisted that only people who voted in the 2000 election can cast ballots for the referendum -- a key issue because it was widespread absenteeism three years ago that allowed Chávez to sweep into power.

The National Elections Council will eventually decide both matters, but the National Assembly, responsible for naming members of the council, has deadlocked on the board's fifth member. Two of the members are pro-Chávez and the other two came from the opposition ranks.

The supreme court has given the assembly a 10-day deadline, saying it will pick the fifth member if the legislature can't. The government insists that opposition leaders are deliberately creating controversy.

`A PRETEXT'

''This vote is just a pretext to heat up the environment, create confusion and create a smoke screen,'' said pro-Chávez legislator Oscar Mezza. ``They want chaos.''

Delays work in Chávez's favor. If the vote to oust him is stalled until August 2004, then the vice president takes over the remainder of Chávez's term, and that's not what the Venezuelan opposition has in mind. If the recall takes place before then, a new election would be held within 90 days -- but it's still unclear whether, if Chávez lost, he'd be allowed to run to win his job back.

U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said Tuesday that Chávez does not have a vote on when the referendum would be held.

``We would note that the Venezuelan constitution dictates that the decision to have a referendum lies with the courts, the national electoral council and the people of Venezuela, rather than with the executive branch of the government.

''So, these things have been decided,'' Boucher added. ``There are commitments that have been made, and we would expect them to go ahead.''

A referendum could be bad news for Chávez, said political analyst Fausto Masó.

''This referendum is very difficult for him to win,'' he said. ``It's the worst kind of election there is: him against himself.''

Surveys show 69 percent of Venezuelans would vote against Chávez. Pollster Luis Vicente León said Chávez's popularity has dropped six points to 30 percent in the past month alone, and that a scant 53 percent of Venezuelans believe the vote will take place at all.

''It's logical. They will look for every mechanism to delay this,'' León said. ``But they can't impede this forever.''

By the opposition's reading of the law, the vote should take place 60 to 90 days after the signatures are turned in. Activist Roberto Abdul figures the boxes will be delivered Aug. 19, and the vote will go on by November.

REJECTION EXPECTED

But virtually everyone -- even Abdul -- expects the signatures to be rejected, requiring another mass drive to collect new signatures.

''Any government from here to the end of the Earth, facing the idea of having its mandate revoked, would do anything to keep that from happening,'' said Abdul, a board member of Súmate, the organization coordinating the signature drive.

``The government is within its right. We want to show our willingness to resolve things peacefully. A year from now, I hope we'll still be here, but talking about reconstruction and reconciliation.''

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